11 February 2022

Wave 1 Top?

Subwave v (red) and hence Wave 1 (red) continued to rise over the week. But it is losing momentum and could have topped today. The most common retracement of a first wave is 61.8% of its length. You can see from the chart that this will bring the STI down to 3192.86. Another common retracement is 50% which is another Fibonacci ratio. This brings the STI down to 3239.68, which just about coincides with the low of Subwave iv (red). It is common for a first wave to drop to the end of a fourth wave of a lower order. Thus the highest probability is for the STI to drop to about 3240. This is a drastic drop and I hope it will not happen. The silver lining is that after this corrective Wave 2 ends, Wave 3 will form, rising sharply and strongly upwards. But let us not jump the gun for now.

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